What the Official Numbers Tell Voters About
Inflation, Wages, and Purchasing Power
When Americans shop for groceries, fill their
gas tanks, or pay the rent, they don't purchase political promises, they
purchase necessities.
Every election cycle, politicians promise to
make life more affordable. Supporters highlight successes, opponents emphasize
failures, and media coverage often focuses on isolated statistics rather than
the broader picture.
But affordability should not be measured by
campaign speeches or political talking points.
It should be measured by objective economic
data.
Fortunately, those measures already exist.
Every month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and average hourly
earnings—two of the most widely accepted indicators used by economists to
evaluate inflation, wages, and household purchasing power.
The question therefore becomes
straightforward:
How does Joe Biden's Democratic Party's full
four-year administration compare with Donald Trump's Republican Party's second
term so far, using exactly the same official measures?
Understanding Affordability
Affordability is not determined by the price
of one product or one month's inflation report.
Instead, economists generally evaluate
affordability using three fundamental measurements:
- the
annual rate of inflation,
- the
cumulative increase in consumer prices, and
- whether
wages are keeping pace with those prices.
When wages rise faster than inflation,
purchasing power improves.
When inflation rises faster than wages,
purchasing power declines.
Using those measures provides a far clearer
picture than focusing on isolated headlines.
Inflation: Average Pace and Total Price Increases
The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a clear
difference between the two periods.
|
Metric |
Biden (Jan. 2021–Jan. 2025) |
Trump Second Term (Jan. 2025–June 2026) |
|
Average
annual inflation |
4.95% |
3.14% |
|
Cumulative
CPI increase |
21.8% |
5.0% |
|
Highest
12-month inflation |
9.1% (June
2022) |
4.2% (May
2026) |
|
Most
recent 12-month inflation |
2.9%
(2024 average) |
3.5%
(June 2026) |
During President Biden's four-year
administration, consumer prices increased by approximately 22 percent overall.
During Donald Trump's second term to date,
consumer prices have risen approximately 5 percent.
Equally important, the average annual
inflation rate has been about 1.8 percentage points lower during
the current administration than during Biden's full term.
Real Wages: The Measure That Matters Most
Inflation alone does not determine
affordability.
The more meaningful question is whether
workers' wages have kept pace with rising prices.
Using annualized averages from official BLS
data:
|
Annualized Measure |
Biden |
Trump (to date) |
|
Average
wage growth |
4.72% |
3.50% |
|
Average
inflation |
4.95% |
3.14% |
|
Purchasing
power |
−0.23% |
+0.36% |
Using these annualized comparisons, inflation
slightly exceeded wage growth during the Biden administration, resulting in a
modest decline in average purchasing power.
During Trump's second term so far, average
wage growth has modestly exceeded average inflation, leaving purchasing power
slightly ahead on an annualized basis
Everyday
Household Essentials
Looking beyond the overall inflation rate reveals
how everyday necessities have behaved relative to wages.
|
Category |
Biden Average Annual Increase |
Trump Average Annual Increase |
|
Food at
home |
5.3% |
2.7% |
|
Shelter |
5.6% |
3.3% |
|
Electricity |
6.5% |
4.0% |
|
Apparel |
2.9% |
3.9% |
|
Gasoline |
10.2% |
4.3% |
|
New
vehicles |
4.8% |
0.3% |
|
Used
vehicles |
8.8% |
–1.4% |
|
Auto
insurance & repairs |
11.4% |
2.4% |
Several observations emerge.
Food inflation has slowed considerably.
Housing costs remain elevated but have moderated.
Vehicle prices have largely stabilized.
Auto insurance inflation has cooled dramatically.
Some categories, including clothing and
electricity, continue to experience upward pressure, partly reflecting tariff
changes and infrastructure costs.
Overall, however, a larger share of household
necessities has been increasing more slowly relative to wage growth than during
the previous administration.
Why Many Families Still Feel Financial Pressure
One important distinction is frequently
overlooked in public debate.
Inflation measures how quickly prices are
rising, not whether prices return to previous levels.
If inflation falls from 8 percent to 3
percent, prices are still increasing.
They are simply increasing more slowly.
Consequently, households continue to feel the
effects of the significant price increases experienced during 2021 through
2023.
Lower inflation does not erase earlier
increases.
It merely slows the pace of future increases.
Understanding this distinction helps explain
why many Americans still feel financially stretched even though inflation has
moderated considerably.
Tax Policy and Disposable Income
Inflation is only one component of
affordability.
Take-home pay also matters.
The recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill
Act introduced several temporary federal tax deductions, including provisions
related to qualified overtime, reported tips, and interest paid on eligible new
U.S.-assembled vehicles.
For many hourly workers and service employees
who qualify, these deductions may increase disposable income and partially
offset higher living costs.
The precise benefit depends upon each
taxpayer's income, employment circumstances, and eligibility.
What These Numbers Do and Do Not Prove
Economic outcomes are influenced by far more
than presidential policy alone.
Inflation reflects numerous factors, including
Federal Reserve monetary policy, global energy markets, supply-chain
disruptions, wars, productivity, consumer demand, fiscal policy, and
international events.
Therefore, these comparisons should not be
interpreted as proving that every economic outcome resulted solely from one
administration's decisions.
However, they do provide voters with a
consistent, objective framework for comparing the economic environment
experienced under different administrations using the same official measures.
Bottom
Line for Voters
Based on the official Bureau of Labor Statistics
data available today, several conclusions emerge.
The average annual inflation rate has been lower
during Donald Trump's second term to date than during Joe Biden's full
four-year administration.
Average wage growth has slightly exceeded inflation
during the current period, whereas inflation slightly outpaced wage growth over
Biden's full term.
Many major household expenses, including groceries,
housing, vehicle prices, and auto insurance, have also experienced slower rates
of increase relative to wages than during the previous administration, although
some categories, such as electricity and apparel, continue to face upward
pressures.
The substantial price increases that occurred
between 2021 and 2023 continue to affect household budgets because lower
inflation slows future increases rather than reversing previous ones.
Nevertheless, using the official measures of
inflation, wage growth, and purchasing power available today, the economic data
indicate that household affordability has performed more favourably during
Donald Trump's second term to date than during Joe Biden's full administration.
Financing
Costs, Price Levels, and Why Many Families Still Feel Financial Pressure
Although the pace of
inflation has slowed, two important realities continue to affect household
budgets: financing costs and the higher overall price level left by the
inflation surge of 2021–2023.
First, borrowing remains
expensive. As of mid-2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains
around 6.5% to 6.7%, while many credit cards continue to carry interest rates
exceeding 20%. Consequently, even when home or vehicle prices stabilize, monthly
payments remain substantially higher than they would have been when mortgage
rates were near 3% in 2021. Financing costs therefore remain a significant
burden for many families.
Second, inflation measures
the rate at which prices increase—not the level of
prices. A slower inflation rate does not reverse earlier price increases; it
simply means prices are rising more slowly.
Using the Consumer Price
Index, a basket of goods and services that cost approximately $100 when
President Biden took office in January 2021 now costs roughly $122. Most of
that increase occurred during 2021 through 2024. Since January 2025, prices
have risen by approximately another $5.
Recent federal tax changes
may provide some relief for eligible workers. Temporary deductions for
qualified overtime premiums, reported tips, and interest paid on qualifying
U.S.-assembled vehicle loans increase disposable income for many middle-income
households, although the benefits gradually phase out at higher income levels.
Meanwhile, real average
hourly earnings have remained broadly stable over the past year, while
unemployment has remained relatively low at approximately 4.2%.
Taken together, these facts
help explain why two seemingly contradictory observations can both be true.
The annual pace of inflation
has moderated, and affordability has improved relative to the previous four
years according to official inflation and wage measures.
At the same time, many
families continue to feel financially stretched because they are living with
the cumulative effects of earlier price increases, elevated borrowing costs,
and housing expenses that remain historically high.
Understanding both realities
is essential to understanding the true state of affordability.
Restoring
Accountability
Affordability should never be reduced to a
campaign slogan, a selective headline, or a single monthly statistic chosen to
support a political narrative.
Voters deserve comparisons based on the same
measurements, over clearly defined periods, using official and publicly
available data. That means distinguishing between the rate of inflation and the
overall price level, comparing wage growth with the rising cost of living, and
acknowledging both improvements and continuing pressures.
No president controls every economic force.
Interest rates, wars, energy markets, supply chains, Federal Reserve decisions,
productivity, taxation, and government spending all influence household
finances. Political leaders must nevertheless remain accountable for the
policies they adopt, the conditions over which they exercise influence, and the
results experienced by citizens.
Accountability also requires intellectual
honesty from the media, economists, political parties, and voters themselves.
Facts should not become credible only when they favour one side, nor be
dismissed merely because they favour the other.
The evidence available to date does not show
that every affordability problem has disappeared. Prices remain high, housing
remains difficult for millions of families, and several essential costs
continue to rise faster than wages.
But the same evidence does show that inflation
has increased at a slower average annual rate during Donald Trump’s second term
to date than during Joe Biden’s full administration, while wage growth has
performed somewhat more favourably relative to inflation.
That conclusion should not be exaggerated.
Nor should it be concealed.
In a responsible democracy, citizens should
judge governments neither by personality nor partisan loyalty, but by
measurable results.
Affordability begins with household purchasing
power.
Accountability begins with telling voters the
truth about it.

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