Thursday, June 6, 2024

A Framework for Economic Stability: Zero Inflation, Controlled Money Supply Growth, and Capped Interest Rates

 

In economic policy, the pursuit of stability and growth remains paramount. Traditional approaches, such as the widely accepted 2% inflation target, have merits yet have significant drawbacks. 

As an alternative, a framework consisting of a zero inflation target, money supply growth capped at 2% above the zero inflation rate, and interest rates capped at a maximum of 4% offers a compelling path toward sustainable economic stability and consumer benefit. This proposal aligns with the principles of Milton Friedman's theories while addressing the complexities of modern economies.

The Proposed Framework

  1. Zero Inflation Target: Maintaining a stable price level ensures that the purchasing power of money remains constant over time.
  2. Money Supply Growth Cap: Limiting money supply growth to 2% above zero inflation provides liquidity without inducing inflation.
  3. Interest Rate Cap: Capping interest rates at a maximum of 4% keeps borrowing costs affordable and predictable.

Rationale for the Framework


1. Zero Inflation Target

Consumer Confidence and Purchasing Power: Zero inflation preserves the value of money, allowing consumers to plan their spending and savings without the fear of eroding purchasing power. This stability is crucial for long-term financial planning and confidence.

Business Planning and Investment: Businesses thrive in a stable price environment, as it allows for accurate forecasting and long-term investment decisions. This predictability fosters economic growth by encouraging innovation and expansion.

Mitigating Deflation Risks: While zero inflation aims for price stability, it also guards against the negative impacts of deflation. Deflation can lead to decreased consumer spending and increased debt burdens, which this policy seeks to avoid.

2. Controlled Money Supply Growth

Inflation Control: By capping money supply growth at 2% above zero inflation, the framework minimizes the risk of inflation. This controlled growth ensures that the money supply expands at a pace that supports economic activity without leading to excessive price increases.

Monetary Flexibility: The 2% cap provides enough liquidity to support economic growth and respond to short-term economic shocks while maintaining overall price stability. This balance is key to fostering a stable economic environment.

3. Interest Rate Cap

Affordable Borrowing Costs: Capping interest rates at 4% ensures that borrowing costs remain low, stimulating investment and consumer spending. This is particularly important for economic recovery and growth.

Predictability and Stability: Predictable interest rates provide stability for both borrowers and lenders. This predictability reduces uncertainty and supports long-term financial planning and investment.

Economic Stimulus: Low interest rates encourage borrowing and spending, driving economic activity. This stimulus is essential for maintaining momentum in the economy, especially during periods of economic downturn.

Case Study Analysis: The Great Depression

To understand the potential impact of this policy framework, let's apply it to the Great Depression, a period marked by severe deflation and economic contraction.

Historical Context

  • Deflation Causes: Stock market crash, bank failures, reduced consumer and business spending, tight initial monetary policy.
  • Economic Impact: GDP contraction, skyrocketing unemployment, severe price deflation (~25% decrease in prices).

Hypothetical Policy Implementation

Monetary Policy Adjustments:

  • Money Supply: Instead of contracting by ~30%, the money supply would be increased by up to 2% annually.
  • Interest Rates: Cap nominal interest rates at 4%.

Counterfactual Economic Outcomes:

  • GDP and Employment: The proactive increase in money supply and capped interest rates would likely result in less severe GDP decline and lower unemployment rates.
  • Inflation/Deflation: Controlled money supply growth could prevent sharp deflation, maintaining stable price levels around zero inflation.
  • Financial Stability: Increased money supply and capped interest rates could stabilize the banking sector, reducing the likelihood of bank failures and financial panic.

Challenges and Mitigation Strategies

  1. Deflation Risks:

    • Economic Stagnation: The risk of deflation can lead to reduced consumer spending and business investment.
    • Mitigation: Implement unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing, to inject liquidity into the economy during downturns. Fiscal policies, like increased government spending and tax cuts, can also stimulate demand.
  2. Interest Rate Cap Constraints:

    • Limited Monetary Policy Tools: With a cap on interest rates, central banks have less room to maneuver in response to economic shocks.
    • Mitigation: Utilize other tools like forward guidance, asset purchases, and macroprudential policies to maintain financial stability and economic growth.
  3. Money Supply Management:

    • Monitoring and Adjusting: Ensuring the money supply grows at a controlled rate requires continuous monitoring and adjustment.
    • Mitigation: Develop robust monetary policy frameworks and tools to accurately measure and control money supply growth. Coordination with fiscal policy can enhance effectiveness.

Long-term Benefits

  1. Sustainable Economic Growth:

    • Investment and Innovation: Stable prices and affordable borrowing costs encourage long-term investments and innovation, driving sustainable economic growth.
    • Consumer Welfare: Enhanced consumer confidence and purchasing power contribute to improved welfare and quality of life.
  2. Financial Stability:

    • Debt Management: Predictable and manageable debt servicing costs reduce the risk of financial crises and promote financial stability.
    • Risk Mitigation: Controlled money supply growth and stable interest rates help mitigate the risks of asset bubbles and financial market volatility.

Conclusion

The proposed framework of a zero inflation target, money supply growth capped at 2% above zero inflation, and interest rates capped at a maximum of 4% offers a structured and balanced approach to achieving long-term economic stability and consumer benefits. While there are challenges, particularly related to deflation risks and limited monetary policy tools, these can be mitigated through robust policy frameworks, continuous monitoring, and effective coordination with fiscal policy. This approach aligns with the principles of Milton Friedman's theory, emphasizing price stability and controlled monetary growth, ultimately fostering a stable and prosperous economic environment.

Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Proposal Capping Interest Rates: Linked to Inflation Rate

 

In recent years, the volatility of interest rates has become a significant concern for both consumers and financial institutions. The concept of pegging interest rates to inflation with a fixed cap has garnered attention as a potential solution to promote economic stability and protect borrowers. This article delves into the implications of such a proposal, examining its potential benefits and challenges.

Understanding the Proposal

The proposed policy suggests that interest rates for credit cards, bank loans, and first mortgages should not exceed 3 percentage points above the annual inflation rate. This approach aims to create a more predictable and stable lending environment, benefiting both borrowers and the broader economy.

The Current Landscape

Interest rates are already influenced by inflation as part of broader monetary policy. Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, adjust interest rates based on various economic indicators, including inflation, employment, and economic growth. However, this proposal introduces a specific limit, offering a clear upper bound for interest rates, which could enhance consumer protection.

Benefits of the Proposal

  1. Consumer Protection: A fixed cap on interest rates can prevent excessively high borrowing costs, making loans more affordable for consumers. This protection can reduce the likelihood of defaults and financial distress among borrowers.

  2. Predictability and Stability: By linking interest rates to inflation with a fixed cap, borrowers and lenders can enjoy greater predictability. This stability allows consumers and businesses to plan their finances more effectively, promoting sustained economic growth.

  3. Economic Stability: Tying interest rates to inflation ensures that monetary policy remains responsive to economic conditions. This responsiveness can help stabilize the economy by mitigating the impact of inflationary pressures on borrowing costs.

Challenges and Considerations

  1. Impact on Lenders: Financial institutions might face reduced profitability, particularly during periods of low inflation. To compensate, banks may need to adjust their business models, potentially leading to higher fees or stricter lending criteria.

  2. Market Distortion: Artificially capping interest rates could distort the lending market, potentially reducing the availability of credit. Lenders might become more cautious, resulting in stricter credit requirements for borrowers.

  3. Implementation and Enforcement: Establishing and maintaining such a policy would require robust regulatory mechanisms. Ensuring compliance and adapting the policy to different economic conditions could pose significant challenges.

  4. Inflation Volatility: Inflation rates can be volatile, leading to rapid changes in borrowing costs. Borrowers may find it challenging to manage their finances in such an environment, necessitating effective risk management strategies.

Real-World Examples and Lessons Learned

Several countries have experimented with interest rate caps, offering valuable lessons for policymakers. For instance, historical precedents demonstrate the importance of balancing consumer protection with financial sector health. Analyzing these examples can help identify potential pitfalls and best practices for implementing the proposed policy.

Conclusion

The proposal to cap interest rates at a fixed spread above inflation holds significant promise for promoting fairer lending practices and economic stability. However, careful consideration is required to balance the interests of consumers and lenders and to address potential unintended consequences. By learning from real-world examples and implementing robust regulatory frameworks, policymakers can create a more stable and predictable lending environment, benefiting the broader economy.

As this proposal continues to be debated, it is essential to keep in mind the overarching goal: to protect consumers while ensuring a healthy, resilient financial sector capable of supporting sustained economic growth.

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Hamas's Gaza Claimed Civilian Casualties Inflated Based on Historical Facts


The reported numbers of civilian casualties in Gaza are inflated, as the terrorist group Hamas is the one putting out the figures, as the exact impact can only be determined through rigorous and independent verification which today has not happened.  

The high civilian-to-combatant death ratio, reliance on Hamas local sources, and basically no access to independent observers all contribute to the grossly conceivably inflated numbers, with no vigorous independent outside continuous efforts to improve data accuracy and verification which is essential for a true understanding of the conflict's impact relating to actual combat and civilian deaths.

What is strange is that politicians, as well as large sections of the public and the media, are buying into a narrative crafted by a murderous, amoral, duplicitous cult. Last year, Michael Milshtein, a retired Israeli intelligence official and an expert on Palestinian media affairs, told The New Yorker that Hamas thinks all Westerners are stupid. They may be right.

It’s not that Hamas has made truth a casualty of war, it’s that it has convinced so many to embrace lies with easy abandon.

While reported civilian casualty numbers in Gaza are inflated, rigorous and independent verification is needed to determine the exact actual numbers. The high civilian-to-combatant death ratio, reliance on local sources, and limited access to independent observers contribute to inflated numbers. Continuous efforts to improve data accuracy and verification are essential to truly understand the conflict's impact.

Final Thoughts

Accurate reporting of civilian casualties is crucial for understanding the humanitarian impact of conflicts, guiding international response, and ensuring legal accountability. By comparing different conflicts and examining the challenges in casualty reporting, we can better appreciate the complexities and strive for more reliable data instead of mostly propagandized reports.

Civilian casualties in conflicts have always been a critical and often contentious issue. This analysis compares civilian deaths during World War II, the Ukraine war, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza. By examining the numbers, sources, and context, we can better understand the humanitarian impact and the challenges in accurate casualty reporting.

World War II Civilian Deaths

Duration and Scale:

  • Duration: 1939-1945.
  • Global conflict involving multiple continents and major powers.

Estimated Civilian Deaths:

  • Approximately 50-55 million.
  • This includes Holocaust victims, bombings, massacres, and other war-related causes, with significant losses in the Soviet Union, China, Poland, Japan, and Germany.

Civilian Deaths in the Ukraine War (2022-Present)

Duration and Scale:

  • Ongoing since February 2022.
  • Localized conflict involving Russia and Ukraine with international implications.

Estimated Civilian Deaths:

  • As of early 2024, estimates range between 8,000 to 12,000.
  • These figures come from the United Nations, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and other monitoring bodies.

Civilian Deaths in the Gaza Conflict

Duration and Scale:

  • Multiple conflicts over the years, with significant escalation in 2023-2024.
  • Highly populated and small geographical area.

Estimated Civilian Deaths:

  • Recent reports suggest around 4,000-5,000 civilian deaths in the 2023-2024 conflict.
  • Sources include Palestinian health authorities, the Israeli military, the United Nations, and NGOs.

Civilian vs. Combatant Deaths in Gaza

Recent Conflict (2023-2024):

  • Civilian deaths: ~4,000-5,000.
  • Combatant deaths: ~1,000-2,000.
  • This results in a ratio of approximately 2-5 civilian deaths for every combatant death.

Comparative Analysis

Civilian-to-Combatant Death Ratio:

  • WWII: Civilian deaths were approximately twice the military deaths.
  • Ukraine: Civilian deaths are lower compared to military deaths.
  • Gaza: The higher ratio (~2-5:1) suggests that many reported civilian deaths might include combatants or individuals involved in hostilities.

Indicators of Potentially Inflated Numbers:

  • Sources of Data: Local health authorities in Gaza may have biases or political motivations.
  • Discrepancies in Reporting: Different organizations report varying figures, and independent verification is challenging.
  • Nature of the Conflict: Gaza's high population density and militants operating within civilian areas complicate casualty counts.

Verification and Reporting Challenges

Access Restrictions:

  • Limited access for independent observers and media in Gaza hampers accurate reporting.
  • Independent investigations by international bodies are essential for precise assessments.

Technological and Satellite Data:

  • Satellite imagery and other technologies are increasingly used for damage and casualty assessments but require on-the-ground corroboration.

Broader Implications

Humanitarian Impact:

  • Significant displacement, injuries, and psychological trauma among civilians.
  • Damage to infrastructure exacerbates the humanitarian crisis.

International Response:

  • The international community's response is influenced by reported casualty figures.
  • Accurate reporting is crucial for appropriate humanitarian aid and diplomatic efforts.

Legal and Ethical Considerations:

  • Misreporting or inflating numbers affects legal assessments and accountability for potential war crimes.

Recommendations

Strengthening Independent Verification:

  • Advocate for unrestricted access for international observers and journalists in conflict zones.
  • Support neutral organizations providing unbiased casualty reporting.

Improving Data Collection Methods:

  • Utilize advanced technologies alongside traditional methods.
  • Encourage transparency from all parties in the conflict.

Education and Awareness:

  • Raise awareness about the importance of accurate reporting.
  • Educate the public and policymakers on casualty reporting complexities.

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Justice System and Constitution in USA MORE Political than Judicial

 


The Supreme Court Has Never Been "politically neutral"

 Over the last 25 years PLUS, the court has become just another partisan institution. 


The Supreme Court was to devolve into just one more political institution, in an age of extreme partisanship and polarization, the fear goes, that the guardrails supporting our Constitutional system would fall away.

Andrew Jackson was open about defying the Supreme Court and firmly executed his Executive Power with the Indian Removal Act in 1830.

The Supreme Court has not just been divided along the ideological lines that always existed, but divided along partisan lines, with every justice appointed by a Democrat voting more liberally than every justice appointed by a Republican. That is far from the historical norm.

  • Supreme Court and Partisanship: The Supreme Court is increasingly seen as a political institution amid extreme partisanship and polarization, potentially undermining the Constitutional system.

  • Historical Defiance: Andrew Jackson openly defied the Supreme Court by using executive power to enforce the Indian Removal Act in 1830, exemplifying the dominance of executive authority over judicial rulings.

  • Perception of Partisanship: There is a growing sense that law is becoming synonymous with partisan politics, with the Supreme Court's recent decisions reflecting political motivations.

  • Roe v. Wade: Campaigns to appoint justices to overturn Roe v. Wade, which were successful, highlight the political nature of judicial appointments.

  • Partisan Division: The Court is now divided along partisan lines, with justices appointed by Democrats voting more liberally than those appointed by Republicans, which deviates from historical norms.

  • Historical Enforcement: The Brown v. Board of Education case demonstrated the need for executive action and societal acceptance to enforce Supreme Court rulings, with President Eisenhower intervening to enforce desegregation.

  • Public Confidence Decline: Polling data shows a significant decline in public approval of the Supreme Court, with many Americans viewing it as politically motivated rather than impartial.

  • Historical Political Engagement: Justices in the past, such as John Jay, John Marshall, and others, were actively involved in political affairs and maintained political ambitions.

  • Abe Fortas Example: Justice Abe Fortas maintained close political ties with President Lyndon B. Johnson, which led to ethical concerns and his eventual resignation, prompting changes in Supreme Court conduct.


  • The Supreme Court has increasingly become viewed as a political institution amidst today's extreme partisanship and polarization. There is a fear that this could undermine the guardrails supporting the Constitutional system. Historically, figures like Andrew Jackson openly defied the Court, showing that executive power often triumphs over judicial rulings.

    Concerns are rising that the law is now perceived as partisan politics. Although some argue that the Court is more committed to law over politics than before, others see its decisions as politically motivated, especially with campaigns influencing judicial appointments, such as the case of Roe v. Wade.

    The Court's division now reflects partisan lines, a significant departure from the past when ideological differences were less pronounced. Historical cases like Brown v. Board of Education show that effective Supreme Court rulings often require executive support and societal acceptance.

    Public confidence in the Supreme Court has declined, with many Americans viewing it as politically driven rather than impartial. This perception is fueled by events like the text message exposure between Virginia Thomas and Mark Meadows.

    The Supreme Court has never been completely apolitical. Early justices engaged in political activities, and throughout history, many justices maintained political ties and ambitions. Notable figures like Earl Warren, Hugo Black, and Abe Fortas exemplified the close relationship between the judiciary and politics.

    Fortas' tenure highlighted the ethical dilemmas of such relationships, leading to his resignation and subsequent changes in Court conduct, including greater transparency and a reduction in direct political advising by justices.

    This historical context reveals the complex interplay between judicial decisions, executive authority, and societal attitudes, challenging the notion of an entirely neutral and apolitical Supreme Court.








    Canadian Taxpayer Fund Universities/Colleges Must First Benefit Canadian Citizens


    The funding structure of Canadian universities and colleges is a critical aspect of the education system, with a significant portion derived from public funds contributed by both federal and provincial taxpayers. 

    In the 2021/2022 academic year, a substantial sum of $22 billion was allocated from provinces, the federal government, and various grants, constituting 52.7% of the institutions' overall funding. This financial support serves as a backbone for the educational opportunities provided to Canadian students, facilitating their access to high-quality tertiary education.

    However, a notable distinction exists in the allocation of these funds, as they are designated exclusively for Canadian students and not extended to international students. This stance aligns with the belief that taxpayer-funded resources should predominantly benefit citizens of the country. The argument for such exclusivity is grounded in the idea that Canadian universities and colleges, supported by taxpayers and donors, should prioritize the education of their citizens.

    In light of these considerations, I propose to restrict and cap the enrollment of international students to a maximum of 15 percent, both at the provincial level and for individual institutions, which emerges as a logical extension of the principle of fairness and equity. 

    By implementing such limitations, the intention is to ensure that the primary beneficiaries of tax-funded and donation-supported higher education institutions are Canadian citizens. This approach seeks to strike a balance between the educational needs of domestic and international students while upholding the responsibility of public institutions to serve the interests of their citizens.

    Proponents of this viewpoint and I would argue that while international students contribute positively to the cultural diversity and economic growth of the country, the core mission of publicly funded institutions should remain focused on providing accessible and high-quality education to Canadian residents. 

    The proposed enrollment cap aims to safeguard the integrity of the educational system, fostering a balanced and inclusive environment that serves the interests of both the local population and international students.

    Further, it is essential to acknowledge that discussions around enrollment caps for international students involve complex considerations, including economic impacts, cultural exchange benefits, and the potential for global collaboration. Striking the right balance between inclusivity and prioritizing domestic interests requires careful deliberation and a nuanced approach to ensure the continued success and sustainability of Canada's higher education system.

    FACTS: There are currently 807,750 international students across all study levels who have study permits in Canada. Of the total 807,750 study permit holders, 551,405 received a study permit in 2022 in Canada. From 2000 until 2021, the number of study permit holders has significantly increased by more than 400%.

    At present, there are 2,194,087 students enrolled in universities and colleges across all provinces in Canada in total. Therefore, using this actual figure of students then here are the following percentages and numbers to consider for international students:

    10% = 219,408 

    15% = 329,113 

    20% = 438,818

    25% would equal and allow 548,522 international students out of the total existing number of 2,194,087.

    Comparing the number of international students between Canada and the USA reveals a trend where Canadian citizens may be overlooked in favour of international students paying higher tuition fees. This raises concerns about our children being left behind in terms of post-secondary education placements within our taxpayer-funded universities and colleges.

    In the USA, there are 16.2 million enrollments in universities and colleges, with 1,057,188 international students, constituting 6.5% of the total enrollment.

    In Canada, there are 2,194,087 enrollments in universities and colleges, with 807,750 international students. This represents 36.8%, which seems disproportionately high considering our population and the available enrollment spaces for Canadian citizen students. It raises questions about the impact on opportunities for our citizens.

     

    Source:

    1 Statistics Canada

    2  Statista - Enrollment of postsecondary students in Canada by province

    3 Education Data - College Enrollment Statistics

    4 Inside Higher Ed - International Enrollment

    Monday, May 27, 2024

    Palestine/Gaza Does Not Meet De Facto (ACTUAL) Requirements OF Statehood

     

    Palestine or the land mass of Gaza, at this point and time, cannot legally be considered a state under international law.

    The ICC and ICJ have made a political not legally binding decision on Israel, Palestine, or Gaza. The ICC and ICJ have ignored the requirements for granting statehood and have made decisions based solely on political ideologies and not international legal grounds.

    The ICJ is known, as the World Court, a UN body for hearing disputes between states and Gaza and or Palestine are NOT States under international law.

    1.         Palestine/Gaza does not meet the de facto requirements of statehood as it lacks independent control over its population, territory, government, and foreign relations. While it has some recognition and a degree of self-determination, it does not achieve de jure statehood under international law. For the ICC and ICJ to recognize Palestine/Gaza as a state/statehood prematurely it shall continue to destabilize the region further.

    2.         For Gaza or Palestine to meet the legal requirements for a state/statehood first a group i.e. Hamas that is or has been designated as a terrorist organization, as a legitimate government under international law, it must “unequivocally renounce terrorism and cease all terrorist activities.” Hamas’s stated Mission is “Murder Jews; “Obliteration” of Israel. “

    3.         Hamas and the Palestinian Authority must both disarm, and demobilization of all armed terrorist factions are crucial steps for even being legally considered for statehood/state and further have demonstrated significant shifts in both the group's behaviour and the perceptions of the international community.

    4.         Compliance with International Law: The group must commit to and comply with international humanitarian and human rights laws and not be a terrorist organization or supporter of terrorism.

    5.         While the PLO transitioned through peace processes, recognized Israel's right to exist, and gained recognition as the representative of the Palestinian people under Article 3 of the Draft United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples defines self-determination as the right of an entity to “freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development. Nowhere is it stated that the right to self-determination equals a right to statehood.  Israel has granted Palestine numerous powers in which it has obtained a great degree of self-determination.

    6.         Palestine/Gaza is an autonomous entity, not a state. 

    7.         The UN considers Palestine an international organization rather than a state.  States may individually recognize Palestine, but the international community as a whole does not recognize Palestine as a state.  Therefore, Palestine is not a state by de jure standards as well.

    8.         A state must have the ability to engage in diplomatic and foreign relations with other states. The DOP Article XI creates an Israeli-Palestinian Economic Cooperation Committee to promote the development of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Palestine therefore cannot enter into economic agreements with other states without the approval of Israel.

    9.         Section 2 of Article IX on Laws and Military Orders reiterates this point: “Both parties will review jointly laws and military orders presently in remaining spheres.” Under the terms of both the Interim Agreements and the Declaration of Principles, it is clear that the powers Palestine possesses do not extend to the realm of foreign relations.  By signing these agreements, Palestine acknowledged and accepted its inability to conduct foreign relations.  Without this fourth component, Palestine has not achieved de facto statehood.

    10.       Palestine’s ability to enter foreign relations is severely limited by the Interim Accord of 1995.  Article IX, Section 5, which lays out the Powers and Responsibilities of the Palestinian Council, states that: “…the Council will not have powers and responsibilities in the sphere of foreign relations, which sphere includes the establishment abroad of embassies, consulates or other types of foreign missions and posts or permitting their establishment in the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, the appointment of or admission of diplomatic consular staff and the exercise of diplomatic relations [emphasis added].”

    11.       Furthermore, the 1994 Agreement of the Gaza Strip and Jericho calls for the creation of a joint committee called the Civil Affairs and Cooperation Committee to handle civil affairs in the region. Members from both Israel and Palestine are to meet once a month to discuss civil matters including infrastructure, licensing, hospitalization, transportation and other such matters. In this agreement, Israel also states it has authority over “the Settlements, the Military Installation Area, Israelis, external security, internal security and public order” and “shall exercise its authority through its military government” in the region. This again shows that it is Israel who has the overriding authority of the area. 

    12.       An entity must have a government to be considered a state.  The Encyclopedia of Public International Law states that “the government, in exercising its power, must be capable of acting independently of foreign governments.” Palestine does not possess such independence for it rules under the overarching authority of Israel.  The Declaration of Principles (DOP), which was signed by both sides, gave limited powers to the Palestinian National Authority.

    13.       In UN General Assembly Resolution 181, the United Nations called for a partition of the land into both a Jewish State and an Arabic State.  Resolution 181 is often used as evidence of Palestine’s sovereign title over the West Bank and Gaza Strip, though this remains unfounded. The United Nations tried to create a state, which goes well beyond the powers granted to it by the UN Charter.  As stated in Chapter IV, Article 10, UN resolutions are only recommendations and not binding laws. Furthermore, the UN abandoned Resolution 181 with the passing of Security Council Resolutions 2428 and 3389.

    14.       Palestine’s rejection of Resolution 181 that prevented its adoption. In the Palestine National Charter, Article 19 states that “The Partition of Palestine, which took place in 1947, and the establishment of Israel, are fundamentally invalid.” For decades Palestinians have declared the partition void, therefore rejecting sovereign title to the area. 

    15.       By signing the Declaration of Principles (DOP) in 1993, Palestine acknowledges that the sovereign title of the West Bank and Gaza Strip had not yet been resolved.  Article V of the DOP states that future permanent status negotiations shall cover the issue of borders in the future, but as of right now, Palestine does not have sovereignty over the land. The DOP and latter agreements granted certain powers to Palestine but never sovereign title over the land.

    16.       As stated by the Third U.S. Restatement of the Law, the population must be “under the control of its own government.” While Palestine has been granted many powers over its people, it is still not independent of Israeli control.

    17.       Palestine does not have sovereign title over the West Bank or the Gaza Strip.  The area was granted to Israel as early as 1917 by the British in the Balfour Declaration. In the Balfour Declaration, Britain recognized the need for a Jewish state and granted the Palestinian land for this purpose.  Later Britain turned the issue of a Jewish state over to the League of Nations, but the Balfour Declaration was upheld through the Mandate for Palestine.

    18.       The Permanent Court of International Justice, the UN Special Commission on Palestine, and the Council of the League continue to uphold the Mandate for Palestine.

    19.       Palestine/Gaza is not officially recognized as a fully independent country by the United Nations.

    20.       The Balfour Declaration, issued by the British government in 1917, did not directly address the issue of a Palestine homeland or self-determination for the people of Palestine.

    21.       The Sykes-Picot Agreement, as outlined in the correspondence between Sir Edward Grey and Paul Cambon, did not specifically guarantee a homeland or nation for Palestine. And the Sykes-Picot Agreement did not directly address the issue of a Palestine homeland or self-determination for the people of Palestine or grant the people of Palestine, or any other specific region, the right to determine their future.

    22.       The letters exchanged between Husayn and McMahon hinted at possible future arrangements and cooperation between the Arab leaders and the British, there were no explicit assurances of independence for the Arabs, particularly regarding Palestine. There was no explicit indication of an agreement or commitment by the Allies to grant the people of Palestine, or any other specific region, the right to determine their future. Therefore, it cannot be assumed from these letters alone that there was an international commitment by the Allies to grant such rights to the people of Palestine.

    23.       The refusal by the Arab population of the mandate territory to accept Resolution 181 demonstrated that they were not interested in establishing their own state if it meant allowing the existence of a Jewish state. This opposition to acknowledging the right of a Jewish state to exist still lies at the core of the conflict.

    24.       How can there be between Palestine and Israel or advance peace when none of the Arab universities has a center for teaching the thought, practice, and study of peace? When most of the publications focus on conflict rather than peacebuilding? When the educational curriculum teaches hatred, enmity, antisemitism, and death rather than celebrating life, moderation, and reconciliation? When Hamas terrorists and extremists are celebrated, and peacemakers and moderates are labelled traitors? We need to change our mindset and culture to achieve peace.

    Therefore, for Gaza or Palestine to meet the legal requirements for a state/statehood first a group i.e Hamas that is or has been designated as a terrorist organization, as a legitimate government under international law, it must “unequivocally renounce terrorism and cease all terrorist activities.” Hamas’s stated Mission is “ Murder Jews; “Obliteration” of Israel. “

    The ICC/! CJ in their decision was Ultra Vires under law. The Montevideo Convention of 1933 outlines the criteria for statehood, which include a permanent population, defined territory, government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states. Palestine meets some of these criteria, but its full status remains contentious due to ongoing territorial disputes and the lack of a universally recognized government.

    While some countries recognize Palestine as a state and has a certain level of recognition at the UN, it does not have universal recognition or full legal status as a sovereign state in the eyes of all international law or actors.

    The panel overstepped its legal authority when it stated and based its ruling on agreeing with Khan’s assessment that the ICC has jurisdiction over the case since Palestine is a state party as per the ICC statute.

    Palestine is NOT a State or a country therefore the ruling was Ultra Vires. (beyond the legal power or authority of the person performing an action)

    Summary and Analysis

    Historical Context

    Post-Ottoman Empire: Following World War I, Palestine came under British rule along with other Arab nations.

    British Withdrawal: Unlike other Arab states that gained independence, Palestine did not.

    Balfour Declaration (1917): Britain supported the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.

    UN Involvement: The United Nations proposed a partition plan in 1947, calling for separate Israeli and Palestinian states. Israel accepted the plan and declared independence in 1948; Palestine rejected it and remains without recognized statehood.


    Criteria for Statehood (Montevideo Convention)

    Permanent Population:

    Palestine has a permanent population with a shared culture and history residing in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

    Controversy exists over whether this population is sufficiently governed independently, as per the Third U.S. Restatement of the Law.

     

    Defined Territory:

    Palestine does not have sovereign title over the West Bank or Gaza Strip.

    The Balfour Declaration and subsequent mandates supported a Jewish state, complicating Palestinian claims to the land.

    UN General Assembly Resolution 181 proposed a partition, but this was not binding and was later abandoned.

    Palestine’s land is fragmented and lacks clearly defined borders, similar to other unrecognized entities historically.

     

    Government:

    Palestine has limited self-governance but operates under Israeli authority.

    Agreements like the Declaration of Principles (DOP) and Interim Accord outline the limited powers of the Palestinian Authority, granted by Israel.

    Palestine lacks independent control over security, economy, and infrastructure.

     

    Capacity to Enter into Relations with Other States:

    Palestine cannot independently engage in foreign relations without Israeli cooperation, as outlined in the Interim Accord.

    Diplomatic limitations and the inability to form an army hinder its status as a fully independent state.

     

    De Facto vs. De Jure Statehood

    De Facto Statehood: Requires actual control over a permanent population, defined territory, government, and foreign relations.

    Palestine does not meet these criteria due to Israeli authority and lack of independent control.

    De Jure Statehood: Involves legal recognition by other states and international organizations.

    Despite recognition by some states, Palestine has not achieved broad international recognition.

    Organizations like the UN, WHO, and EU do not recognize Palestine as a state, only granting it Observer Status.

     

    Right to Self-Determination

    UN Recognition: The right to self-determination is acknowledged by the UN but does not equate to statehood.


    Autonomy vs. Statehood: Palestine has autonomy in areas like education, health, and social welfare, but this does not fulfill the criteria for statehood.